Notes on the data: Population Projections

Male/female/total population by broad age group: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 75+, 85+ years

Policy context: The data presented here are projections, not predictions or forecasts, and are intended to illustrate the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, internal migration and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period. Their value is in providing an estimate of what the population might look like in the future, in different geographic areas across the country. This is of particular relevance as Australia’s population ages.

Notes: These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia and were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia.

The projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex; however, only the projections for 2025 and 2030 are included in the atlas.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2
The base population for each SA2 is the Estimated Resident Population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023.

Projections – Local Government Areas
The base population for each LGA is the Estimated Resident Population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023.

The projections at SA2 and LGA levels are available from the Digital Atlas of Australia website: https://digital.atlas.gov.au/datasets/digitalatlas::sa2-population-projections-2022-to-2032/about (Last accessed: 05 August 2024)

The assumptions of fertility (birth rates), mortality (death rates) and migration underpinning the projections are primarily based on historical patterns and trends specific to each area.

Note that these projections do not consider any recent trends in migration patterns, both internal and external, or fertility rates.

Geography: Data available by Population Health Area, Local Government Area, Primary Health Network, Quintile of socioeconomic disadvantage of area, and Remoteness Area

Numerator: Male/female/total projected population by broad age groups for the selected period (2025 and 2030)

Denominator: Male/female/total projected population for the selected period (2025 and 2030)

Detail of analysis: Per cent

Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections at the SA2 level for 2025, and 2030.