Notes on the data: Population Projections

Male/female/total population by broad age group: 0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+, 70+, 85+ years

Policy context: The data presented here are projections, not predictions or forecasts, and are intended to illustrate the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, internal migration and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period. Their value is in providing an estimate of what the population might look like in the future, in different geographic areas across the country. This is of particular relevance as Australia’s population ages.

Notes: These data are based on Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) population projections that were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as consultant to the Australian Government Department of Health. The projections are not official ABS data and the assumptions have been set by the Department of Health.

The base Estimated Resident Population (ERP) used is the 30 June 2017 ERP as published in Australian Demographic Statistics, December 2017 (ABS cat. no. 3101.0) and released on 20 June 2017. Later years (2018 – 2032) are projected using a combination of assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (ABS cat. no. 3222.0) and historical patterns observed in each state/territory.

The projections at the SA2 level are available from the GEN Aged Care Data website, https://www.gen-agedcaredata.gov.au/Resources/Access-data/2019/September/Population-projections,-2017-(base)-to-2032-for-al last accessed 13 February 2020.

The assumptions of fertility (birth rates), mortality (death rates) and migration underpinning the projections are primarily based on historical patterns and trends specific to each area.

Note that these projects do not consider any recent trends in migration patterns, both internal and external, or fertility rates.

Geography: Data available by Population Health Area, Local Government Area, Primary Health Network, Quintile of socioeconomic disadvantage of area, and Remoteness Area

Numerator: Male/female/total projected population by broad age groups for the selected period (2020, 2025, or 2030)

Denominator: Male/female/total population for the selected period (2020, 2025, or 2030)

Detail of analysis: Per cent

Source: These data are based on customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030.