Notes on the data: Population projections

Male population projections for 2020 and 2025 (2012 base) by 5 year age groups


Policy context:  The data presented here are projections, not predictions or forecasts, and are intended to illustrate the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, internal migration and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period. Their value is in providing an estimate of what the population might look like in the future, in different geographic areas across the country. This is of particular relevance as Australia’s population ages.


Notes:  These data are based on Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) population projections that were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as consultant to the Australian Government Department of Social Services. The projections are not official ABS data and the assumptions have been set by the Department of Social Services. 

The base Estimated Resident Population (ERP) used is the 30 June 2012 ERP as published in Australian Demographic Statistics, December 2012 (ABS cat. no. 3101.0) and released on 20 June 2013. ERP age/sex cells have been confidentialised through perturbation, though this does not affect SA2 totals. SA2s with total ERP under 1,000 have generally been held constant as reliable projections are not possible for the very small age/sex cells involved.

Later years (2013 to 2027) are projected using a combination of assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (ABS cat. no. 3222.0) and historical patterns observed in each state/territory.

The assumptions of fertility (birth rates), mortality (death rates) and migration underpinning the projections are primarily based on historical patterns and trends specific to each area.

PHIDU have converted SA2 data to PHAs which are aggregations of whole SA2s. LGA data has been concorded from SA2 data.

CONDITIONS OF USE: Specific Conditions of Use apply in respect of the use of these data and information. These include that you have read, understood and accept the AIHW’s Explanatory Notes before accessing or using the material.


Numerator:  Male projected population by 5 year age groups for the selected period (2020 or 2025)


Denominator:  Total male projected population for the selected period (2020 or 2025)


Detail of analysis:  Per cent


Source:  These are customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Social Services by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and originally published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. PHA data were compiled by PHIDU based on these customised projections for 2020 and 2025 (2012 base).


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